Price evidence & methodology
How First Dials prices watches
An estimate is context, not a valuation of a watch we have inspected, an offer or a recommendation to buy.
Two distinct sources — never mixed
The current market estimate uses an external reference-specific market source, converted to AUD with dated exchange rates where required. Australian dealer asking prices appear separately. Our new Australian retail model remains switched off until approved; when enabled, its benchmark replaces the external estimate completely.
The Australian retail model
We record dated dealer asking prices, group likely duplicates and adjust for condition, box and papers and watch age. The reference estimate blends reference, family and brand evidence, gives recent observations more weight and smooths the historical series. The full-set, excellent-condition estimate is adjusted back to the listing’s specification.
Observed mean, median, mode and P10–P90 describe the asking-price distribution. The P10–P90 band is not a confidence interval. Historical estimates are retrospective: they use the evidence and inferred identity mappings frozen for that model run, not quotes published on those historical dates.
Confidence before a verdict
High confidence requires at least eight effective watches, three dealers and a 90% confidence-interval width below 10% of the benchmark. Medium requires at least four effective watches and a width below 20%. Otherwise there is no benchmark or verdict. An unusually high or low score is held for reference-mismatch review before its badge appears.
The existing score places an asking price at 50 when it matches the adjusted benchmark. Higher scores indicate below-market pricing; lower scores indicate above-market pricing. Within 1% is “At market”. A score is not an authenticity or condition assessment.
Private sale and dealer buy estimates
Dealer margins reflect liquidity and price level, within 10–25%. Real approved dealer buy-ins calibrate the model only once 20 matched physical watches are available; until then defaults apply. Expected transaction price uses asking-price cuts as a negotiation proxy, with a 4% default. Private sale value is the midpoint of transaction and dealer buy estimates.
A disappeared listing is only presumed sold after 21 days without a matching relist. This is not proof of a sale, the final amount paid or a typical guaranteed selling time. Dealer buy ranges reflect model uncertainty, not a binding offer. Inspect the watch and verify pricing independently.